Cinderella won’t find her glass slipper in March this year. As much as we love the bracket busters, underdogs, and mid-major underrated teams that seem to always emerge from nowhere around this time every year in the NCAA Men’s Division I basketball tournament, we shouldn’t count on them to do too much damage this month.The mid-major conferences aren’t as strong as we’ve seen in previous years. This season, the teams that dwell in such conferences are extremely over-hyped and overrated. St. Mary’s fits perfectly into this category.
The Gaels are second in the West Coast Conference behind Gonzaga (No. 22). St. Mary’s is led by junior forward Diamon Simpson and sophomore center Omar Samhan. Simpson is averaging 13.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Samhan is averaging 10.8 and 7.4. The two are unstoppable in the front court when they’re in the game at the same time. They don’t play well by themselves.
The reason they don’t play well is the Gaels’ inconsistent guard play and streaky outside shooting. If St. Mary’s runs into a team with size (they haven’t really all season), the Gaels could be in trouble. Samhan has fouled out of two games this season and has accumulated four fouls in seven other games. Playing against teams with an inside presence could give him fits and force more foul trouble. Expect an early tournament exit for St. Mary’s.
Two other teams ranked in the top ten of the AP could see early tournament exits as well: Memphis (No. 2) and Duke (No. 6).
Memphis, as a team, shoots only 59% from the free throw line. Free throw shooting is what killed them in their only loss of the season against Tennessee, and it will kill them come tournament time.
Duke relies heavily on their perimeter shooting to make up for their lack of size in the frontcourt. The Blue Devils’ 3-point shooting has been phenomenal in some games and weak in others. Shooting is something that can’t be a factor a team depends on night in and night out. If Duke has a cold shooting performance in the tournament, they’ll find it difficult emerging out of the second round.
Unfortunately, UC’s bitter crosstown rival Xavier appears to be one of the most dangerous teams entering this year’s field of 65. The Musketeers, ranked No. 8 in the AP poll, have three guards and three forwards averaging double-figures in scoring. This gives Xavier multiple ways to beat teams on the offensive end of the court. Senior forward Josh Duncan is leading Xavier in scoring with 11.7 points per game and has shown streaks of perfection at times. Duncan went 15-for-15 from the field and totaled 48 points in two back-to-back road games against Atlantic 10 conference opponents Charlotte and Rhode Island.
Derrick Brown has emerged as an inside and outside threat for the Musketeers. The 6-foot-8 sophomore forward has proved he can make tough jump shots and drive to the hoop when necessary, finding trips to the free throw line.
If one or two guys have a poor performance in the tournament, Xavier’s balanced style of scoring can pick up the slack. A trip to the Final Four in San Antonia would not be a surprise for the Musketeers.
No. 15 ranked Purdue is another surprise team to watch in the Big Dance. The “Baby Boilers” are led by freshmen guard E’Twaun Moore (12.2 ppg) and forward Robbie Hummel (11.7 ppg). Sophomore guard Keaton Grant is also a solid contributor with 10.5 points per game. Purdue has beaten No. 10 Wisconsin twice this season.
However, the most dominant team in the country is UCLA, ranked No. 3 in the AP. One of the Bruins three losses this season came by way of a two-point defeat at the hands of Texas (No. 4). Led by freshman center Kevin Love, UCLA has four players averaging 12 or more points per game. Love is averaging a double-double with 17.3 points and 11.1 rebounds. With Love patrolling the paint, sharp-shooting junior guard Darren Collison hanging around the perimeter, and a deep bench that could easily fulfill a nine-man rotation, the Bruins appear to be unstoppable.
The later rounds of the tournament shouldn’t have too many surprises, and the Final Four should be filled with top ranked teams. The third time will be the charm for UCLA, as they’ll finally cut down the nets after their third visit to the Final Four in as many seasons.