Former First Lady and New York Senator Hillary Clinton can add one more title to the front of her name: “Presidential Long Shot.” Following the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina and even in the wake of the May 13 primary in West Virginia, where she won by a lopsided margin (41%), the Clinton camp is struggling to maintain its legitimacy.Trailing Illinois Senator Barrack Obama in key categories such as overall votes, number of states won and total number of delegates won, Sen. Clinton is now losing support among the Democratic hierarchy. In the race for the coveted superdelgates where Clinton once led by nearly a hundred Obama now enjoys the lions share. By all evidence Obama, barring a minor miracle, will win the Democratic Party nomination. This observation has prompted a few calls from some of her colleges, such as Patrick Leahy and others, to abandon her presidential bid so the party can unite and focus on John McCain. But is this the right strategy by party leaders for winning in the general election in November?
Observing the polar charge of voters backing each candidate, it is not perfectly clear that Leahy is on the right track for assured victory. According to some poll numbers coming out of West Virginia, as few as 38% percent of voters supporting Clinton would transfer their support over to Obama if he were officially declared the Democratic nominee, and some would even cross party lines and vote for McCain. Obama’s supporters were a little more pliable at 54%.
While these numbers are probably about as high as it would get in any state, it does highlight an antithetical dimension in the 2008 Democratic Primary season. If voters with this much devotion to a particular candidate were denied the opportunity to show their support because their candidate was forced out by party officials, there may be a national backlash from those voters similar to what the West Virginia polls suggest.
Instead of the public calls for an end to her seemingly futile endeavor, it may be a better strategy to solicit Hillary’s help. In exchange for an end to any negative speech when directed at Obama (which hasn’t worked for her anyway), ranking Dems would be silent or appear neutral publicly when fielding questions concerning the future of her campaign. For Clinton the opportunity to salvage creditability among the undecided and independents voters increases greatly when her own parties leaders aren’t speaking gravely of her campaign’s vitality. And for those who believe Obama has this thing wrapped up and are looking toward November, the softer tone from the opposing camp may help dampen the negativity of its supporters toward an Obama nomination, making the goal of a strong, united Democratic Party this November much easier to attain.