On February 14 in a packed lecture hall, Dr. Ionas Rus, Assistant Professor of Political Science, and History Professor John McNay gave a follow-up presentation to a pre-election analysis they provided on October 23.
Professor McNay began the presentation, comparing the 2012 election to the election of 1936 and its issue of coalitions. Dr. Rus then gave his presentation, explaining how he correctly predicted that Barack Obama would be reelected.
According to Rus, there were both reliable and unreliable data in terms of pointing to a likely winner. Rus looked at statistics from previous elections state by state. There were also a number of gaffes on the Republican side that hurt their chances.
“The elections of 2012 were not so much won by the Democrats as lost by the Republicans,” Rus concluded. “Their results were broadly predictable for those with a significant track record of electoral analysis.”
Thursday, June 26, 2025