Republican Minority Leader John Boehner aims to wrest control of the United States House of Representatives from the Nancy Pelosi led Democratic Party. To do so, the GOP must win at least 40 seats.In the past 17 mid-term elections, the sitting president’s party has lost an average of 28 seats.
Many in the minority are anticipating a wave election, like that of the 1994 conservative ascendancy, when the GOP gained 54 seats to take control of the House for the first time since 1954.
There are various factors that must give the Democratic Party pause. Mid-term elections always have lower voter turnout than general elections, and the turnout skews toward older and more conservative voters.
If that holds true in this election, then the Democrats cannot count on the huge youth vote brought into the process in 2008 by President Obama. That makes Democratic seats in more conservative districts ripe for turnover.
Also worrisome is the fact that this is the first national election for the fiscally conservative and politically active Tea Party. They have thrived in their positioning against record Democratic spending and the federal deficit.
The political spectrum has become more polarized with major Democratic initiatives like the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which remains an unpopular piece of legislation that Democrats are reticent to campaign on.
Possibly the Democrats’ biggest saving grace is that they will not be caught flat-footed, as they were in 1994, which was symbolized by Washington Representative Tom Foley becoming the first sitting Speaker of the House to lose an election since the Civil War.
Obama has set forth on a backyard campaign tour to rally his base. He has also made stops at the University of Wisconsin and Bowie State University, trying to channel the energy of his 2008 campaign in an effort to rally the youth voters.
Democrats have started to tout popular parts of the health care legislation, like the ability for young people to stay on a parent’s health plan until age 26.
It is yet unknown if the less popular President can help stem the tide of the surging Republicans.